How will changes in technology affect jobs in the future? Continued from previous post
Researchers at MIT published an excellent paper analyzing job skills and the possibility that they could be augmented or replaced by computing technology. They divide tasks into two main categories, analytic and manual. Within those categories, tasks can be considered routine or non-routine. This is shown below:
The researchers analyzed data
from 1960-1998 and found that the key determinant of whether a skill could be
replaced by technology was not white collar vs. blue collar; the key is whether
or not a task is routine. This has played out in the legal world; technology
has largely replaced legal research by professionals such as
lawyers and paralegals due to cheaper costs. This somewhat defies the
conventional wisdom that more education necessarily leads to better job
security and white collar workers have more secure jobs than blue collar
workers.
Applying these findings to
potential careers and jobs is somewhat speculative but worthwhile. The safest
jobs are non-routine manual tasks. This category includes jobs like janitor and
bus driver, but also includes surgeons. Another key determinant of whether a
job can be “replaced” by computers is the “trust” or “people” factor. For
example, most people trust an ATM to dispense cash as well as a bank teller,
but what a robot surgeon? There’s also tastes and preferences; online learning could replace classroom learning, but most
people respond more positively in a classroom with a teacher.
In addition to replacing jobs, technology can also complement workers to the point of increasing total employment in an industry. Beyond obvious fields such as IT professionals, this includes more conventional jobs such as doctors, managers, and even entertainers.
In addition to replacing jobs, technology can also complement workers to the point of increasing total employment in an industry. Beyond obvious fields such as IT professionals, this includes more conventional jobs such as doctors, managers, and even entertainers.
Ask yourself, can computers (or
robots, which are computers) replace the job I’m aiming for? Will technology make it easier or harder for me to find an opening in that position. Even if the answer
is yes or maybe, it probably shouldn’t affect your career decision. Still,
understanding what may happen in the future of an industry can only help you
understand it better.
Landon J. Latham
Career Educator
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